Global Meltdown May Begin in Eastern Europe
Feb 17, 2009
We think we have economic problems in America. Europe's problems are much worse, particularly in Eastern Europe. Their debt level is unpayable, and it is owed to Europe's banks. Those banks will end up holding worthless IOU's soon, and when that happens, the world economic problems will be just BEGINNING.
The Telegraph has published a most disturbing account of what is happening in Eastern Europe, particularly the Ukraine and Latvia. National defaults are inevitable, and the Austrian bank is most vulnerable, having loaned far too much to survive a default on repayments.
Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.
Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.
"This is the largest run on a currency in history," said Mr Jen.
Recall what Lindsey Williams said last July. . . that the price of oil would come down to $50/barrel, manipulated down by the oil companies themselves as an act of war against oil-producing countries to bankrupt Iran, Venezuela, and others on the "enemies" list. If it took 5 months for Russia to go through 36% of its foreign reserves, at that rate it will be bankrupt in about a year. They probably will not be the first to default, however, since they are in much better financial situation than others in the region.
Continuing the above article . . .
Its [Europe's] $16bn rescue of Ukraine has unravelled. The country – facing a 12pc contraction in GDP after the collapse of steel prices – is hurtling towards default, leaving Unicredit, Raffeisen and ING in the lurch. Pakistan wants another $7.6bn. Latvia's central bank governor has declared his economy "clinically dead" after it shrank 10.5pc in the fourth quarter. Protesters have smashed the treasury and stormed parliament.
"This is much worse than the East Asia crisis in the 1990s," said Lars Christensen, at Danske Bank.
"There are accidents waiting to happen across the region, but the EU institutions don't have any framework for dealing with this. The day they decide not to save one of these one countries will be the trigger for a massive crisis with contagion spreading into the EU."
Europe is already in deeper trouble than the ECB or EU leaders ever expected. Germany contracted at an annual rate of 8.4pc in the fourth quarter.
If Deutsche Bank is correct, the economy will have shrunk by nearly 9pc before the end of this year. This is the sort of level that stokes popular revolt.
Because of "globalization," it is hardly possible for a single country to default without affecting other nations in a chain reaction. Especially when everyone is already in a precarious position. The slightest gust of wind can easily bring down the entire Babylonian house of cards.
Those who have little or no money to lose will be the ones who will lose the least. Those who have built up a bank account in order to live off the paltry interest payments are just waiting for it to evaporate into thin air. I suggest doing something with the money before everyone else rushes for the door. You may want to buy supplies that you will need in the future ("food storage" could be helpful). Get some silver or gold, depending on how much you have to spend. I realize that gold and silver too will eventually become relatively worthless, but money itself is going to be the first to become worthless.
Gold and silver will have value as long as there is food available. If there is no food available, then you won't be able to buy it with any kind of currency. You can't eat gold or silver, after all. Right now, we don't know just how bad it will get before people repent and God intervenes. My personal view is that things will continue to get worse until the people agree that we have to establish the Kingdom of God, rather than repair the Babylonian system.